Michigan State vs. UConn: Where the game will be decided
If the Spartans hold the frontcourt to a draw, Jeremy Fears and the perimeter should carry them to the Elite Eight and beyond
It is not unreasonable to enter this Sweet 16 matchup against Connecticut - winner of the 2023 and 2024 national titles - with Tarris Reed as the primary concern for Michigan State. Reed opened the tournament with a dominant 31-point, 27-rebound performance, but a closer look at that game, his follow-up against UCLA, and his overall season profile should temper at least some of that concern.
This is not to diminish Reed. He is an excellent, at times dominant, low-post presence. But after his breakout against Furman, he followed with a far more modest 10-point, 13-rebound performance against UCLA, where he was outplayed in the first half by Xavier Booker, who finished with 13 points and five rebounds. The contrast between those performances is telling.
Fatigue is one possible explanation, but the simpler answer is matchup. Against Furman, Reed faced two 6-foot-11 centers who weighed just 215 and 225 pounds. Against UCLA, he dealt with Booker, a 6-foot-11, 245-pound body capable of meeting him with comparable size and strength. Reed relies heavily on establishing deep post position, and the advantage he held against Furman - 40 to 50 pounds - was far more significant than the roughly 20-pound edge he held over Booker.
Michigan State will present an even more physical challenge. Carson Cooper, at 6-foot-11 and 245 pounds, provides similar size with superior defensive discipline. Beyond Cooper, the Spartans can rotate Jesse McCulloch and Jaxon Kohler, giving Reed a steady stream of capable, physical defenders. Over the course of the game, Reed will not just face size, but sustained resistance.
It is also important to recognize that Reed’s performance against Furman was an outlier. He averages...
