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Michigan State basketball "four factors" analysis at the midway point

A deep dive into the "four factors of basketball success" can provide insight into MSU's position in the Big Ten race.

By Paul Fanson (Dr. Green and White)
Published on January 11, 2026

A few weeks ago, I introduced my annual Big Ten basketball preview where I broke down the concept of strength of schedule, performed a deep dive on the conference slate for the Michigan State Spartans, and gave the current results of my state-of-the-art Big Ten basketball simulation.

But there are other statistics that are useful to understand basketball at a deeper level. Today, I would like to reintroduce a concept referred to as the "Four Factors" of basketball success.

The Four Factors have been discussed in great detail elsewhere. Briefly the four factors on both offense and defense are:

1. Effective field goal percentage (eFGPct)

2. Turnover percentage (TOPct)

3. Offensive rebounding percentage (ORPct)

4. Free-throw rate (FTRate)

Basically, the four factors account for how well a team shoots or defends shots (eFGPct), the ability of a team to create (or lose) shots opportunities (TOPct and ORPct), and the ability of a team to score or avoid points from the free throw line (FTRate).

Big Ten Breakdown

Let's first compare the 18 Big Ten teams based on the four factors. The Table 1 below give the adjusted Kenpom offensive efficiency and performance in the four factors on offence for each team as of the morning of Jan. 11.

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