Dr. Green and White helps you fill out your bracket, 2026 edition: part two, breaking down all four regions

Yesterday I introduced my methodology of how I use Kenpom efficiency margins to understand why NCAA Tournament upsets happen at the frequency that they do. I used the data for the 2026 Tournament bracket to predict that we are likely to see a lower number of upsets, especially in the first two days. I also made some predictions about the make up of the Final Four.

In the second and final part of this series, it is time to dig into the four regions in detail. Which teams will advance to Indianapolis? Which upsets will create buzz in the first two rounds, and how far will the Michigan State Spartans advance? I will explore each topic in detail below.

East Region

Table 1 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Table 1: 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region odds and data summary.

This table gives a lot of information that we will use to make our picks. The left side of the table shows the pre-tournament Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin for each team. This metric can be used to estimate point spreads which are the gold standard when it comes to predicting the most likely outcome of college basketball games. The shaded cells on the left side of the table provide a comparison of each team's efficiency relative to the historical average of teams of that seed. 

This provides a simple way to look at the relative strength or weakness of each team and the bracket as a whole. If the cell is shaded green, it means that the team is stronger than a historically average team of that seed. If it is shaded red, the team is historically weaker than average.

The middle of the table shows the odds for each team to advance through each round of the tournament. The teams are sorted not by seed, but by the odds for each team to advance to the Final Four. The red or green shaded cells on the far right are the relative odds for each team to advance compared to historical averages for that seed.

Finally, there is a column labeled "SoD" which stands for "strength of draw."  This calculation starts with the odds for a historically average No. 1 seed to advance to the Final Four from any of the 16 positions on this year's bracket. I then compare those odds to the odds that the same historically average No. 1 seed would have to reach the Final Four in a historically average NCAA Tournament bracket.

The first thing that jumps out is the shear amount of green in the "Relative Kenpom Efficiency" column on the left side of the table. The top nine seeds in the East are all above average relative to past teams of the same seed. 

In many cases, the top seeded teams are significantly above average. Six total teams in the East Region are more than 3.00 points of Kenpom efficiency margin higher than average. For comparison, there were only six teams in the entire 2024 Tournament that were more than 3.00 points above average.

All the teams in the East are good this year, and the same trend is present in the other three regions as well. This is the main explanation for why simulation is projecting fewer upsets that normal, especially in the first round. For the second year in a row, there is a bigger gap that usual between the top 10 or 11 seeds in each region compared to the bottom five or six teams.

Perhaps the most useful part of Table 1 is the section on the far right. This shows the relative odds for each team to advance through the tournament. The variation in green and red cells give an indication of where certain teams might get tripped up.

For example, Michigan State's path appears "green" through the Elite Eight round and it turns red (barely) in the odds to make the Final Four. This is in part because, on paper, Michigan State is a stronger than usual No. 3 seed (+5.89 in efficiency margin). In addition, No. 2 UConn, while strong (+2.68), is not as overpowered as the Spartans appear to be.

However, No. 1 Duke has the highest Kenpom efficiency margin in the country, which limits the odds for MSU to win the East Region. On balance, the Spartans' odds to reach the Final Four (11.5%) are almost exactly average for a No. 3 seed.

Other notable paths in the East Region include that of No. 4 Kansas, which turns red at the Sweet 16. This is because No. 5 Saint. Johns projects to be a slight favorite over Kansas if the two teams were to meet in the second round.

No. 7 UCLA also has a path that is green all the way to the final column. This suggests that the Bruins (if they are fully healthy) have a better-than-expected chance to reach the Regional Final. This analysis provides a preview of the potential upsets that could occur in each region.

Overall, No. 1 Duke has the best odds to advance to the Final Four out of the East at 58%, which is 21-percentage points above average for a No. 1 seed. No. 2 UConn has the second best odds at 12%, followed very closely by No. 3 Michigan State (11.5%).

No. 5 Saint John's (5.5%), No. 6 Louisville (4.5%), and No. 4 Kansas (4.4%) are all longshots but a Final Four run would not be shocking from any of those schools. Of those schools, only Louisville has better Final Four odds than an average team of its seed.

Based on this observation, Michigan State and Louisville stand out as potential dark horse Final Four candidates out of the East Region.

The Spartans have a 93.9% chance to avoid the dreaded upset by No. 14 North Dakota State. They then have a 60% chance to advance to the Sweet 16 in Washington D.C. Michigan State has a 34% chance to reach the Regional Final and (as mentioned above) an 11.5% chance to make the Final Four. There is a 4.7% chance to reach the Championship Game and a 1.6% chance (about 1-in-60) to win it all, which is the tenth-best odds of any team in the field.

Due the overall strength of the field, every single team in the 2026 Tournament has a negative "strength of draw" rating. The least negative value in the full bracket is -7.7% for No. 12 High Point. Michigan State's draw is rated at -11.7%. This might seem bad, but in this tournament, everything is relative. The Spartans have the second best draws of the four No. 3 seeds, behind only Illinois (-10.2%).

Finally, my analysis suggests the the East Region is the easiest of the four regions in the 2026 Tournament. A historically average No. 1 seed would have a 4.9% chance to advance to the Final Four.

West Region

Table 2 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the West Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 6.5% chance to advance to the Final Four in the West, making it the second easiest region in 2026.

Table 2: 2026 NCAA Tournament West Region odds and data summary.

The storyline and analysis in this region is similar to the East. The top nine teams in the region are all above average, as are both No. 11 seeds. 

The general "stair step" shape of the section on the far right of the tables suggests that the West Region is likely to "go chalk" where the top seeds generally advance. The only real anomalies are that No. 6 BYU looks ripe for a first-round upset and No. 9 Utah State has a good shot to beat No. 8 Villanova.

No. 1 Arizona has the best odds to reach the Final Four (53%) followed by No. 2 Purdue (21%), No. 3 Gonzaga (11%), and No. 4 Arkansas (6.5%). If I had to pick a potential dark-horse-Final-Four team from the West, I would go with Arkansas, based mostly on vibes.

In any given tournament, there is often one region where almost all of the higher seeds win. In 2026, the West Region looks like the mostly like area of the bracket for this pattern to hold.

Midwest Region

Table 3 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the Midwest Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 4.1% chance to advance to the Final Four in the Midwest, making it the most challenging region in 2026.

Table 3: 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region odds and data summary.

Once again, the top 11 seeds are all above average. No. 1 Michigan is the favorite to win the region with odds of 52%. No. 2 Iowa State (24%), No. 3 Virginia (7%), and No. 4 Alabama (5%) round out the top four.

Also note the No. 6 Tennessee (4.6%) has slightly better Final Four odds than No. 5 Texas Tech.

The paths of No. 3 Virginia and No. 4 Alabama both turn red at the Elite Eight round, mostly due to the strength of those teams' most likely Sweet 16 opponents: Iowa State and Michigan.

The Wolverine's also own the second toughest draw (-13.4%) of the No. 1 seeds. Only Florida (-16.8%) is in a tougher position. This is largely due to the presence of the second strongest No. 2-seed, Iowa State, at the bottom of the bracket.

The team that stick out of a possible dark horse Final Four team in No. 6 Tennessee, which is the only school other than Michigan and Iowa State to have a green path in Table 3 all the way to the Final Four.

Note that a No. 6 seed has not made a Final Four since Michigan did it 33 years ago back in 1992. My analysis suggest that there should have been three to five No. 6 seeds in the Final Four over that timespan. Maybe this is the year the data starts to regress back to the mean.

South Region

Table 4 below summarizes all of the relevant data for the South Region. My analysis suggests that an average No. 1 seed would have a 4.3% chance to advance to the Final Four in the South, making it the second most difficult region in 2026 behind only the Midwest.

Table 4: 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region odds and data summary.

Just like the other three regions, the top 11 seeds in the South are all stronger than their historical counterparts.

The top three seeds have the best odds to advance to the Final Four, led by No. 1 Florida (31%), No. 2 Houston (26.5%), and No. 3 Illinois (23%). Note that No. 5 Vanderbilt (7.4%) has Final Four odds that are slightly better than those of No. 4 Nebraska (6.6%).

Florida is clearly the weakest of the No. 1 seeds and as a result, several other teams in the South have better-than-expected odds to win the region. Just based on math (and not on dubious history), No. 3 Illinois has excellent Final Four odds for a team of its seed. Houston and Vanderbilt are also very legitimate contenders.

The other team in the South Region with a surprising green path in Table 4 is No. 9 Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a historically strong (+6.76) No. 9 seed and actually ranked higher in Kenpom than fellow South Region resident No. 6 North Carolina. If you are looking for a real longshot Final Four surprise team, consider the Hawkeyes.

First Round Upset Analysis

Tables 1-4 provide a great snapshot of each region, but in any tournament it is the individual matchups that ultimately matter. Which upsets are the most likely? Figure 1 and 2 below helps to answer that question.