Behind the Scenes of Michigan State Football: Sorting Fact from Speculation
Is Smith supported? What's the NIL strategy?
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Social media is awash these days with discussion of Michigan State football - from Jonathan Smith’s job security to the Spartans’ new NIL strategy. I'd say it’s time to separate rumor from reality.
Based on conversations with multiple sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, I’ve learned quite a bit about four key questions shaping the future of MSU football:
Does Jonathan Smith have short-term, medium-term, and long-term support from those who matter?
Does he have the resources he needs to rebuild MSU football?
What exactly is Michigan State’s new NIL/revenue-sharing approach, and is it working?
Where should the average Spartan fan donate if they want to make a real impact?
Let’s dig in.
Smith’s Support and Timeline
First things first: Jonathan Smith’s job security.
If Smith starts to win — and win big — his future in East Lansing is safe, obviously. But what happens if he keeps splitting seasons and/or losing to Michigan?
Sources close to university leadership say Smith currently has the backing he needs to continue imprinting his philosophy on the program - a slow, steady, process-driven rebuild modeled on what’s worked throughout his career.
Some inside the department compare his approach to building his program the same way Tom Izzo built his: focusing on a healthy, self-sustaining culture from within.
Similar to Izzo now, Smith is open to NIL, but he’s not willing to sacrifice locker-room culture to chase commitments from guys who are just there for a paycheck.
Barring a collapse like a 3–9 season, Smith is expected to get (at least) three full years to prove that his system can translate to the Big Ten. That gives the staff another offseason to build through the transfer portal and coach up the players they’ve already brought in.
Financially, it’s also clear why a quick firing isn’t realistic. Smith still has more $32 million in guaranteed money left on his contract. Firing him (and his staff) early would likely run close to $37 million and would be both expensive and counterproductive when trying to attract a proven replacement, who would ask for even more guaranteed money to come into a program which will no doubt implode if Smith is fired.
Continuity is important to success and Smith is proving that he can do that part – he retained all but two starters from last year (and one of those two tried to come back). Those who have bought into Smith’s program have shown their loyalty to that which Smith is building here.
And, if you think that firing Smith will result in an immediate turnaround, here are eight things you might not be giving full consideration to:
If Smith leaves, so does 90% of the team, including the gutting of a decently ranked 2026 recruiting class.
This is an incredibly tight team and retention of the current team will be difficult. Very, very few players will stay.
Most everyone on the team right now is bought into the culture. They believe in what Smith is selling.
If you want to keep Chiles and Marsh next year, the way to make sure that doesn’t happen is to fire Smith.
