A Quick Look Ahead: Inside Michigan State’s potentially stacked 2026–27 rotation

With the Big Ten regular season complete and the postseason approaching, Michigan State appears poised to contend for a Big Ten Tournament title and make a deep NCAA Tournament run.

Yet the Spartans’ success this season has not been driven by overwhelming talent. In fact, Tom Izzo’s teams rarely rank among the most talented rosters in the country.

Advanced analytics suggest Michigan State has significantly outperformed its roster’s talent projection this season. Michigan State’s margins this season have often been razor thin, a reflection of the team’s talent baseline as well as the roster-altering, season-ending injuries to Kaleb Glenn and Divine Ugochukwu. The season the Spartans have produced so far – and may yet build upon – stands as a testament to the coaching staff and to the significant individual and collective improvement made by the players.

But what about next season? If this season has been about development and overperformance, next season could be about raw roster strength.

Next year, Michigan State could enter the season as one of the top five – if not top three – teams in the country. Assuming normal health, as any forward-looking projection must, and assuming there is no unexpected attrition among key contributors, the Spartans could be loaded. The projected depth chart might look something like this:

• Fears (junior, 30 minutes), Medlock (freshman, 10 minutes) / Ugochukwu (junior, 10 minutes)

• Scott (sophomore, 10 minutes), Teng (junior, 15 minutes), Jervis (freshman, 15 minutes)

• Carr (senior, 25 minutes), Scott (sophomore, 10 minutes), Glenn (junior, 5 minutes)

• Glenn (junior, 15 minutes), Ward (sophomore, 15 minutes), Avent (freshman, 10 minutes)

• McCulloch (sophomore, 20 minutes), Taylor (freshman, 10 minutes), Ward (sophomore, 10 minutes)

This projection, of course, assumes the staff plays nearly every player on the roster and does not add a third center, which remains the one obvious hole on the depth chart. A few notes on the roster – including the incoming freshmen – help explain how this could unfold.

Point guard minutes behind Jeremy Fears

Having watched almost every one of Carlos Medlock Jr's games, I can confidently say that he will play in next season’s rotation. While Divine Ugochukwu is listed alongside Medlock Jr. behind Fears, barring a transfer it would not be surprising if Ugochukwu ultimately redshirts next season – as unusual as a mid-career redshirt may be. Medlock Jr. is simply that good, and the Scott–Teng–Jervis trio should be a potent group at the shooting guard position (more on that below).

Medlock is a terrific point guard and one of the best at the high school level. He is currently listed by 247Sports as the No. 46 overall recruit and No. 52 in the composite rankings, while also ranking as the No. 5 point guard in the senior class. Playing a national schedule this season with Link Academy, Medlock has been the best player for a top-ten high school team in the country and has consistently produced against elite competition.

He is undersized at five-foot-eleven, but he compensates with long arms – likely around a six-foot-four wingspan – along with big hands, excellent burst and agility, and very quick hands defensively. Medlock has a terrific handle and is a superb passer off the dribble. His live-dribble, one-handed passing ability is particularly impressive. He also controls the pace of the game extremely well and already appears comfortable playing alongside other high-level players, showing a strong sense of when to assert himself and when to facilitate.

Perhaps most significantly, Medlock Jr. is a lights-out shooter from 3-point range.

That shooting ability alone should ensure that he plays next season. Medlock possesses legitimate NBA range on his 3-point shot and is excellent both as a catch-and-shoot threat and as a pull-up shooter off the dribble. If he continues to improve as a finisher – he struggled earlier in the season finishing against length and physical contests but has improved noticeably over the past month – he could become a true three-level scoring threat. He is already very comfortable operating in the mid-range, particularly when pulling up near the elbows. When Medlock Jr. is on the floor as the point guard, defenses will have to respect his shooting.

Ugochukwu, meanwhile, was used primarily as a shooting guard this season. That alignment worked at times but often resulted in lineups that lacked offensive punch, as Ugochukwu generally functioned as a passive, ball-moving player at the two-guard spot – aside from his memorable scoring burst at Penn State. In the long run, his best role may be as a hybrid guard similar to the role Tre Holloman filled before his unexpected transfer. However, Ugochukwu still appears to be a year or two away from feeling fully comfortable in that role offensively. Despite his solid defense, that reality could lead the staff to prioritize other options behind Fears and rely more heavily on players better suited to a higher-usage role at shooting guard.

Given Medlock’s ability, the continued development of Scott and Teng, and the talent that Jervis brings, it is difficult to see a clear path to rotation minutes for Ugochukwu if everything else remains constant. For that reason, it would make sense for the staff to at least discuss the possibility of a redshirt season with him. Looking ahead to the 2026–27 season, the roster structure could shift again, and there is also a scenario in which Jeremy Fears makes the jump to the NBA after next year.

Sorting out the logjam at shooting guard next season

Jordan Scott’s revelatory stretch of games since being inserted into the starting lineup at shooting guard has changed the calculus for next season. Scott’s 3-point shooting, growing confidence making plays off the bounce and as a passer, outstanding rebounding, and rapidly improving defense have positioned him as the early leader for that starting role next year.

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• if the Spartans solve one remaining roster flaw, next year’s team could open the season as the national title favorite

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