Trav’s Ten Takeaways 2026 Week 3: USC Preview

Week 3: USC Preview

Offense Against PSU: Where was this level of creativity, urgency and tempo offensively a week ago? As encouraging as it was, it’s equally frustrating compared to a week ago. There was a clear shift in personnel, formation diversity and just general excitement from the offense. It looked much more like our 2023 Dillingham offense relative to anything we had done the previous two weeks. I’m not sure what explains why we waited for Portland State, but the shift was notable from the first drive. Realistically, it’s the only thing we can take from this game, as I’m taking anything physical with a huge grain of salt. The unit looked confident, they played with pace and Dante was able to get back to looking like himself. Whether we are fixed or not, who knows. I’m still not super confident in our offensive line, but our development down the depth chart at RB, TE and WR is encouraging. Getting our OL to play above average football, combined with 1st down success will determine where this season goes.
Defense Against PSU: This is what you expect this defense to do. And once again, there’s nothing physical I can take from this matchup. Two interesting notes to point out. First, it looks like Brandon Finney will be our STAR moving forward, and I’m a big fan of the move. Finney is a physical and willing tackler, and obviously has the cover skills to hold up in coverage. He’s looked good there two games in a row, and allows us to get our next best DBs on the field in Ify and Offord. It’s a perfect move leading into a USC matchup that will test our secondary. Secondly, I found it notable the ways in which Lanning and Hampton deployed Nasir Wyatt. He continues to terrorize opposing tackles in passing downs, but we also saw him kicked inside on a few sub packages. He made a great play as a Spy on one third down, and it’s clear he’s built trust as a guy who can run and tackle. This is the week we need to unleash him as his impact has been 2x Tuioti or Matayo in half the snaps.
What USC Game Means: Just massive. Not sure who needs it more, but I’m sure both coaches feel some big pressure to win. For Oregon, the reality of starting 2-2 in the most anticipated season in over a decade is pretty depressing. To do it against USC, who has been starving for relevancy and fighting to retake the west coast would be even more gut-wrenching. For USC, Riley is feeling the heat from the fan base and has talked a big game this offseason about their championship window finally being open. They consistently trolled Oregon in the offseason, highlighting every recruiting win and focusing on everything but the results on the actual field. For SC fans with Riley, it’s kind of now or never. Oregon is obviously gettable in its current state and they are expecting to win. Losing this game to move to 2-2 would be the first time in Lanning’s tenure where I would really question the future of the program. Not in terms of getting rid of Coach, but more so, what changes are needed to get this back on track? Bluntly, you just can’t ask fans and donors to invest the amount they did in this roster to be .500 and unranked on October 1st.
Oregon Offense vs SC Defense: By all indications, this should be a gettable unit for the Oregon offense. Beyond the Fresno State game, they have given up points and yards against every opponent, and we’re talking San Jose State, Louisiana and Rutgers here. Against Rutgers, they just gave up 460 yards and 35 points. Despite our questions at OL, matching how the Rutgers OL just played shouldn’t be unrealistic. I would describe USC’s defense as just solidly average, but then again, that’s exactly how most people would describe Oklahoma State. Their best unit is the defensive line, and we will watch all week to see if their best defensive player, Jakeem Stewart, will be available. They don’t have any true game changers on the DL, but are solid across the board and can create some havoc if we aren’t dialed in. At LB and DB, it’s a combination of perfectly solid veterans and talented young players. They are generally small at LB and S and we have really exploited those units for a solid ten years now. At DB, Jontez Williams, transfer from Iowa State, is their best player but Rutgers threw on them pretty well, and I would think our WRs can win a lot if Dante has time. The game will be determined by Dante + OL, pretty simple. A/B game from both = Win. Struggle to protect and Dante starts to get hit = Loss.
SC Offense vs Oregon Defense: The USC offensive is legitimately good. Expecting to hold them down is unrealistic and I think you feel good allowing between 20-25 points. They return two experienced RBs, a veteran OL and a veteran QB. Maiava is a real gun-slinger back there, and he’ll hang in the pocket, make tough throws and give his WRs a chance to win. He also can hurt you as a runner, and the next time we stop a QB from scrambling on 3rd down will be the first. How elite their offense is game-to-game depends on how well they run the ball. It has to be our biggest key. They have really talented players at TE and WR, but they are young and have never played in a game like this. I would assume we have an advantage there. We have to capitalize when Maiava puts the ball in danger, and we have to win a couple of 4th down chances that are bound to come up. For me, forcing 2 turnovers, whether 4th down stops or interceptions/fumbles, will swing the game in our favor.
Keys to the Game:

Who Wins 1st Down: If you look at average gain on 1st down after the game, I’d predict you have your winner. Oregon’s offense is astronomically more efficient and explosive out of 2nd and short, which opens up the best of Dante out of play action passes. Similarly, Riley wants to be balanced and will use a lot of creativity and good scheme if his team stays out of obvious passing downs.
Special Teams: Special Teams was a MASSIVE advantage for Oregon in this game last season, and resulted in Riley completely turning over his staff. They have been better this year, but I still think it’s an advantage for us. Whether it’s the return game, kicking or something tricky, there will be opportunities to swing the game for either team.
First Quarter Score: Feels obvious, but probably my biggest key from an Oregon perspective. We CANNOT go 3rd and out on our first drive. It will be important to start fast, take the crowd out, and maintain the confidence and swagger from Portland State. For whatever reason, vibes seem to be important for this team, and the last thing we need is a lackluster start to get in our own heads again and play without confidence.
50/50 balls: Maiava will give his WRs chances to win and between Finney, Offord and Ify, there’s no reason we shouldn’t win and compete. I’ll be watching the officials closely, and if they are calling ticky-tack PI, that won’t bode well for us. As long as we are allowed to be physical and competitive, I think this game will swing on us winning some 50/50’s and picking off Maiava twice. Our DBs are too good to be getting beat consistently by a bunch of young WRs.
3rd and 4th Down: Oregon was 9/32 on 3rd and 4th down against Boise State and Oklahoma State. In a possession game like this, that is an unacceptable number. Failing to convert on 3rd/4th down act essentially as turnovers in this matchup, and we have to get that number closer to 50%. On 4th down specifically, we have to win those moments. Cannot have a 2023 UW type swing there.

Key Matchups to Watch:

Oregon Tackles vs USC Edges: How well can we protect?
USC IOL vs Washington/Bear/Johnson/Breland: 4 NFL guys on our side against zero on their side. We have to win this matchup and stop the run and create interior pressure.
Oregon TEs vs USC LBs/S: I like any of Johnson/Olesh or Harrison here. Getting Jamari back as a trusted weapon and red zone guy will be a big addition.
Finney/Perich/Flowers vs SC Slot/TEs: We have to have good eye discipline and take away Maiava's easy access throw and middle of the field. Perich has to be better.

USC wins if: They are the more balanced team. And, if they are able to engage their crowd and create a true environment. We cannot play from behind, putting our tackles at a disadvantage in obvious passing downs. I’m watching our ability to run the ball early, and if we cannot, USC should like their chances to win. If USC can create consistent 2nd and 3rd and long, the crowd + DL will be impactful, and I can see a redux of Oklahoma State unfolding. It will be interesting to see what their defensive plan looks like, and if they prioritize taking away the running game from Oregon. We saw Washington do that last year, but Dante was dialed and made them pay consistently by hitting balls down the field. If USC jumps out to something like 14-3, 10-0 etc, I do not like our ability to come back.

Oregon wins if: We win the first quarter. I think we have to get points on our first drive, and need to get in the end zone before the first quarter ends. Playing with the lead against a team like USC is a massive advantage, and I also think this crowd will be ready to turn on Riley. When you hold a lead, balance on offense is much easier, and I mentioned how first down success is the biggest key to this game. Oregon needs to start fast, get Dante to hit a few balls down the field, and I’m confident the game flow will benefit Oregon.

Final Prediction: I said this on the podcast, but I’m just going to assume Oklahoma State woke up our entire operation. I can’t imagine being at Oregon, and not having the ultimate motivation and juice to be up for a matchup at USC. One of Dan’s superpowers at Oregon has been having his teams up to go into environments at Penn State, Michigan, Utah etc. I’m willing into existence a world where this is no different and we come out dialed, motivated and start well. If we win the first quarter, and develop some rhythm offensively, I do think we’re the better team and believe we win the game. If we can get USC playing from behind, you turn them more one-dimensional and give yourself the opportunity to capitalize on a mistake or two from Maiava. I do not feel confident in the least in this pick, but it’s the flow I see as most likely. Ducks maintain a 7-10 point lead throughout, get 2 turnovers and win 34-24. Please, let it happen. I don’t want to be in a football-less void.

Week 3: USC Preview

Offense Against PSU: Where was this level of creativity, urgency and tempo offensively a week ago? As encouraging as it was, it’s equally frustrating compared to a week ago. There was a clear shift in personnel, formation diversity and just general excitement from the offense. It looked much more like our 2023 Dillingham offense relative to anything we had done the previous two weeks. I’m not sure what explains why we waited for Portland State, but the shift was notable from the first drive. Realistically, it’s the only thing we can take from this game, as I’m taking anything physical with a huge grain of salt. The unit looked confident, they played with pace and Dante was able to get back to looking like himself. Whether we are fixed or not, who knows. I’m still not super confident in our offensive line, but our development down the depth chart at RB, TE and WR is encouraging. Getting our OL to play above average football, combined with 1st down success will determine where this season goes.
Defense Against PSU: This is what you expect this defense to do. And once again, there’s nothing physical I can take from this matchup. Two interesting notes to point out. First, it looks like Brandon Finney will be our STAR moving forward, and I’m a big fan of the move. Finney is a physical and willing tackler, and obviously has the cover skills to hold up in coverage. He’s looked good there two games in a row, and allows us to get our next best DBs on the field in Ify and Offord. It’s a perfect move leading into a USC matchup that will test our secondary. Secondly, I found it notable the ways in which Lanning and Hampton deployed Nasir Wyatt. He continues to terrorize opposing tackles in passing downs, but we also saw him kicked inside on a few sub packages. He made a great play as a Spy on one third down, and it’s clear he’s built trust as a guy who can run and tackle. This is the week we need to unleash him as his impact has been 2x Tuioti or Matayo in half the snaps.
What USC Game Means: Just massive. Not sure who needs it more, but I’m sure both coaches feel some big pressure to win. For Oregon, the reality of starting 2-2 in the most anticipated season in over a decade is pretty depressing. To do it against USC, who has been starving for relevancy and fighting to retake the west coast would be even more gut-wrenching. For USC, Riley is feeling the heat from the fan base and has talked a big game this offseason about their championship window finally being open. They consistently trolled Oregon in the offseason, highlighting every recruiting win and focusing on everything but the results on the actual field. For SC fans with Riley, it’s kind of now or never. Oregon is obviously gettable in its current state and they are expecting to win. Losing this game to move to 2-2 would be the first time in Lanning’s tenure where I would really question the future of the program. Not in terms of getting rid of Coach, but more so, what changes are needed to get this back on track? Bluntly, you just can’t ask fans and donors to invest the amount they did in this roster to be .500 and unranked on October 1st.
Oregon Offense vs SC Defense: By all indications, this should be a gettable unit for the Oregon offense. Beyond the Fresno State game, they have given up points and yards against every opponent, and we’re talking San Jose State, Louisiana and Rutgers here. Against Rutgers, they just gave up 460 yards and 35 points. Despite our questions at OL, matching how the Rutgers OL just played shouldn’t be unrealistic. I would describe USC’s defense as just solidly average, but then again, that’s exactly how most people would describe Oklahoma State. Their best unit is the defensive line, and we will watch all week to see if their best defensive player, Jakeem Stewart, will be available. They don’t have any true game changers on the DL, but are solid across the board and can create some havoc if we aren’t dialed in. At LB and DB, it’s a combination of perfectly solid veterans and talented young players. They are generally small at LB and S and we have really exploited those units for a solid ten years now. At DB, Jontez Williams, transfer from Iowa State, is their best player but Rutgers threw on them pretty well, and I would think our WRs can win a lot if Dante has time. The game will be determined by Dante + OL, pretty simple. A/B game from both = Win. Struggle to protect and Dante starts to get hit = Loss.
SC Offense vs Oregon Defense: The USC offensive is legitimately good. Expecting to hold them down is unrealistic and I think you feel good allowing between 20-25 points. They return two experienced RBs, a veteran OL and a veteran QB. Maiava is a real gun-slinger back there, and he’ll hang in the pocket, make tough throws and give his WRs a chance to win. He also can hurt you as a runner, and the next time we stop a QB from scrambling on 3rd down will be the first. How elite their offense is game-to-game depends on how well they run the ball. It has to be our biggest key. They have really talented players at TE and WR, but they are young and have never played in a game like this. I would assume we have an advantage there. We have to capitalize when Maiava puts the ball in danger, and we have to win a couple of 4th down chances that are bound to come up. For me, forcing 2 turnovers, whether 4th down stops or interceptions/fumbles, will swing the game in our favor.
Keys to the Game:

Who Wins 1st Down: If you look at average gain on 1st down after the game, I’d predict you have your winner. Oregon’s offense is astronomically more efficient and explosive out of 2nd and short, which opens up the best of Dante out of play action passes. Similarly, Riley wants to be balanced and will use a lot of creativity and good scheme if his team stays out of obvious passing downs.
Special Teams: Special Teams was a MASSIVE advantage for Oregon in this game last season, and resulted in Riley completely turning over his staff. They have been better this year, but I still think it’s an advantage for us. Whether it’s the return game, kicking or something tricky, there will be opportunities to swing the game for either team.
First Quarter Score: Feels obvious, but probably my biggest key from an Oregon perspective. We CANNOT go 3rd and out on our first drive. It will be important to start fast, take the crowd out, and maintain the confidence and swagger from Portland State. For whatever reason, vibes seem to be important for this team, and the last thing we need is a lackluster start to get in our own heads again and play without confidence.
50/50 balls: Maiava will give his WRs chances to win and between Finney, Offord and Ify, there’s no reason we shouldn’t win and compete. I’ll be watching the officials closely, and if they are calling ticky-tack PI, that won’t bode well for us. As long as we are allowed to be physical and competitive, I think this game will swing on us winning some 50/50’s and picking off Maiava twice. Our DBs are too good to be getting beat consistently by a bunch of young WRs.
3rd and 4th Down: Oregon was 9/32 on 3rd and 4th down against Boise State and Oklahoma State. In a possession game like this, that is an unacceptable number. Failing to convert on 3rd/4th down act essentially as turnovers in this matchup, and we have to get that number closer to 50%. On 4th down specifically, we have to win those moments. Cannot have a 2023 UW type swing there.

Key Matchups to Watch:

Oregon Tackles vs USC Edges: How well can we protect?
USC IOL vs Washington/Bear/Johnson/Breland: 4 NFL guys on our side against zero on their side. We have to win this matchup and stop the run and create interior pressure.
Oregon TEs vs USC LBs/S: I like any of Johnson/Olesh or Harrison here. Getting Jamari back as a trusted weapon and red zone guy will be a big addition.
Finney/Perich/Flowers vs SC Slot/TEs: We have to have good eye discipline and take away Maiava's easy access throw and middle of the field. Perich has to be better.

USC wins if: They are the more balanced team. And, if they are able to engage their crowd and create a true environment. We cannot play from behind, putting our tackles at a disadvantage in obvious passing downs. I’m watching our ability to run the ball early, and if we cannot, USC should like their chances to win. If USC can create consistent 2nd and 3rd and long, the crowd + DL will be impactful, and I can see a redux of Oklahoma State unfolding. It will be interesting to see what their defensive plan looks like, and if they prioritize taking away the running game from Oregon. We saw Washington do that last year, but Dante was dialed and made them pay consistently by hitting balls down the field. If USC jumps out to something like 14-3, 10-0 etc, I do not like our ability to come back.

Oregon wins if: We win the first quarter. I think we have to get points on our first drive, and need to get in the end zone before the first quarter ends. Playing with the lead against a team like USC is a massive advantage, and I also think this crowd will be ready to turn on Riley. When you hold a lead, balance on offense is much easier, and I mentioned how first down success is the biggest key to this game. Oregon needs to start fast, get Dante to hit a few balls down the field, and I’m confident the game flow will benefit Oregon.

Final Prediction: I said this on the podcast, but I’m just going to assume Oklahoma State woke up our entire operation. I can’t imagine being at Oregon, and not having the ultimate motivation and juice to be up for a matchup at USC. One of Dan’s superpowers at Oregon has been having his teams up to go into environments at Penn State, Michigan, Utah etc. I’m willing into existence a world where this is no different and we come out dialed, motivated and start well. If we win the first quarter, and develop some rhythm offensively, I do think we’re the better team and believe we win the game. If we can get USC playing from behind, you turn them more one-dimensional and give yourself the opportunity to capitalize on a mistake or two from Maiava. I do not feel confident in the least in this pick, but it’s the flow I see as most likely. Ducks maintain a 7-10 point lead throughout, get 2 turnovers and win 34-24. Please, let it happen. I don’t want to be in a football-less void.